Raghu is Co-Founder and Partner at Navega Strategies in London. His background is in economics (PhD, University of Chicago), and his work focuses on macroeconomic risk.

Efficient long-term savings and investment decisions require measures of long-term asset returns and income growth, that are in turn driven by long-term macroeconomic trends and uncertainty about these trends. Models that aim to forecast these trends are prone to overfitting and imprecision, and are overtly sensitive to long-term means. But by combining data with prior beliefs, based on both theory and judgment, we can improve long-term forecasting accuracy and in turn minimize variability around long-term financial goals. However, the challenge is that such prior beliefs (much like models) involve uncertainty, both with respect to the distribution of outcomes at a given point in time (risk), and the evolution of such distributions over time (uncertainty).

In the forum, Raghu will be talking to us about how to address that challenge, by both identifying expectations about long-term trends and uncertainty, and explicitly accounting for such uncertainty in making portfolio decisions.